Does probability matter in Tarot?

[Deian]

Quote

What does that even mean. Yes and no are opposites. Either it is or it isn't.

They are our attempt to divide the situation into two, so we can read what we receive.

The situation, however, is not really divided into two by itself.  Her passing the exam is not inherit in the situation. Its our "way in" to read the divination, nothing more. The way we have choosen them should reflect the important aspect in the situation. In this case, why she didn't want to study may be more important then what she needs to pass the exam.

Quote

That's just "do I need my umbrella today" stuff. For "Will I get this job", I cannot see how it helps to get a YES ahead of time - do you believe the future is written in stone ? If not - how can that be a useful answer ? If you are aiming to be sure there isn't anything we are missing - how does "yes" (or no) tell you that ?

 

Well, the way I use it it says why is yes and why is no. Something like "Will I get this job?", "yes if I postpone the interview, no if I go right now" kind of stuff.

Is it useful... Well, I find it reassuring, although for important stuff I wouldn't ask in many cases, as I would prefer other factors decide if I get that job.

 

 

Quote

NO. Sure, she was missing her own laziness - but NO is no. 

 

Maybe. Or maybe she felt somewhere deep within passing that exam is not beneficial for her. So she instead found ways to prevent it. Then when the consciousness part of her knew and she didn't knew why she doesn't want to take it, she had to.

 

 

[akiva]

2 minutes ago, Deian said:

Well, the way I use it it says why is yes and why is no. Something like "Will I get this job?", "yes if I postpone the interview, no if I go right now" kind of stuff.

Is it useful... Well, I find it reassuring, although for important stuff I wouldn't ask in many cases, as I would prefer other factors decide if I get that job.

I do something similar to this (I think?), by using a line of 3 or 5 cards. The cards indicate the yes or no and explain the hows and whys. It's quite easy to do 😊

[Misterei]

On 5/11/2024 at 4:10 AM, Jimjam said:

What I realised over time is that if you dont set a boundary, anything can be anything in tarot. A card that is supposedly bad can turn into something good if cook up an explanation ...

Setting a boundary in my mind is asking the right question so that Tarot can give an accurate answer. It's a 2-way street between diviner and divination tool.

 

As many have mentioned, Tarot is a nuanced and contextual.

Empress + Page Cups + Ace Cups + 3 Wands can be a happy pregnancy for a couple who wanted a child.

Empress + Death + Tower  + 4 Swords can be a tragic miscarriage.

Empress + Death + Devil + 5 Coins can be an abortion for a woman who didn't have the financial resources to be a mom. All of these are very specific and I've seen them all as accurate reads on real situations.

NONE were simple yes/no questions, though.

7 hours ago, Deian said:

I think any ratio of any of these set in this way may be misleading.
Lets say we ask :
"Today when I go out on the street will I see a real live brontosaurus(type of dinosaur) strutting around?"

Your point about asking a zero probability question with a 50-50 probability deck is valid ... but it's fictional.

 

IRL humans have valid yes/no questions which really do have closer to a 50-50 probability. And we can do multiple spreads to cover any adjustments to probability.

 

For example, when I asked, "Will it  be beneficial for me to try this med?" Even my doctor shrugged her shoulders. Statistically, the med is 70% successful [if we believe their advertising] yet I have a history of side effects which means maybe it was closer to 50-50 than 70-30 for me, personally.

 

I read on this question multiple times. I had others read on it [in case I was too emotionally involved].

Only AFTER I received multiple readings indicating YES ... did I go ahead and try the med. So far it's been accurate in terms of no severe side effects although still waiting to see if there is a measurable improvement. So we can adjust odds by doing multiple readings if we don't know for sure the odds are 50-50.

3 hours ago, Jimjam said:

... ask the bigger question. 'How is tarot, then, AT ALL reliable?'

.... Where do we draw the boundary? How is Tarot reliable if good cards can be seen with a negative light and bad cards be seen with a positive light? A yes card can turn into a no and vice versa simply by seeing it in a different light. So how do we get a final realistic answer?

I [often] get accurate results because I seldom to never look at ONE card. Per the example above, Empress can mean everything from a wanted pregnancy, to a tragic miscarriage, to an abortion DEPENDING on other cards. Real life is complex. A divinatory system must have some layers of complexity to give accurate predictions. about real life phenomena that arise from complex and interwoven causes.

2 hours ago, gregory said:

... this is a big part of why I don't think Tarot is best for straight yes/no. Because in my view, tarot is fluid. It's very much yes if; no unless, maybe if.  ...

Yes. For me, Tarot's strength is the complexity and nuance of the full deck. This is why I reduce the deck if I want a simple yes/no.

[akiva]

5 minutes ago, Misterei said:

As many have mentioned, Tarot is a nuanced and contextual.

Empress + Page Cups + Ace Cups + 3 Wands can be a happy pregnancy for a couple who wanted a child.

Empress + Death + Tower  + 4 Swords can be a tragic miscarriage.

Empress + Death + Devil + 5 Coins can be an abortion for a woman who didn't have the financial resources to be a mom. All of these are very specific and I've seen them all as accurate reads on real situations.

NONE were simple yes/no questions, though.

But if someone came to you and asked "will the pregnancy come to term?" and you pulled Empress + Death + Tower + 4 of Swords, that would be a "no, because of a tragic miscarriage" (obviously not as flippant as that, it's just an example). The message is the same, regardless of whether the question is binary or more explorative

[gregory]

I'd say it could actually be "yes, but you will go through hell to get there, and maybe need a caesarean."

[Misterei]

13 minutes ago, akiva said:

But if someone came to you and asked "will the pregnancy come to term?" and you pulled Empress + Death + Tower + 4 of Swords, that would be a "no, because of a tragic miscarriage" (obviously not as flippant as that, it's just an example). The message is the same, regardless of whether the question is binary or more explorative

I NEVER start with a binary question for a client. For example, the question of pregnancy is ALWAYS complex and part of a bigger picture. I start with general reads as a rule for this reason. Even the combinations I gave were parts of a 10-card spread and larger discussion.

10 minutes ago, gregory said:

I'd say it could actually be "yes, but you will go through hell to get there, and maybe need a caesarean."

See above. When reading for a client I start with a general spread. I would NEVER jump into a yes/no on an issue as complex and emotional as pregnancy. Also when it comes to topics like abortion ... often the client doesn't verbalize this. It's on her mind, of course, but she doesn't come out and say it. In the example i gave, it was part of the larger picture of the client asking about her marriage.

 

In spreads about miscarriage it's often in the past [thank god] and the client is worried about the current pregnancy b/c of past events which she may or may not mention. If it appears in the future I don't predict miscarriage b/c that veers into unethical. Instead I tell the client there is a risk and she must work with her doctor or get a second doctor [again, this depends on other cards in a 10-card spread]. In the example I gave, thank god the miscarriage had been in the past but it still affected the woman.

Edited May 12, 2024 by Misterei

[akiva]

Just now, Misterei said:

I NEVER start with a binary question for a client. For example, the question of pregnancy is ALWAYS complex and part of a bigger picture. I start with general reads as a rule for this reason.

It was more to highlight how the example given could  easily be interpreted as a yes/no 😆

 

10 minutes ago, gregory said:

I'd say it could actually be "yes, but you will go through hell to get there, and maybe need a caesarean."

I'd struggle to see Empress and Death together in a pregnancy reading as a yes 😅

[Misterei]

4 minutes ago, akiva said:

It was more to highlight how the example given could  easily be interpreted as a yes/no  ... I'd struggle to see Empress and Death together in a pregnancy reading as a yes ...

This is an interesting point about the skill of Tarot vs the skill of dealing with people. Pregnancy questions are FRAUGHT. They are literally a mine field for an ethical reader. Per the above ... Cards might show the probability miscarriage in the future ... so I MUST handle it carefully as a RISK that you and your doctor might [hopefully] mitigate.

[akiva]

5 minutes ago, Misterei said:

This is an interesting point about the skill of Tarot vs the skill of dealing with people. Pregnancy questions are FRAUGHT. They are literally a mine field for an ethical reader. Per the above ... Cards might show the probability miscarriage in the future ... so I MUST handle it carefully as a RISK that you and your doctor might [hopefully] mitigate.

Of course, in any kind of reading there needs to be professionalism, and if it involves health (physical or mental) sign posting to the correct services to make sure the client receives the help they need. 

 

All of the examples you gave could easily be read as if spread from a yes/no question. In my experience it's not that different from reading on exploratory questions. You come to the same conclusion but with just an added "yes it will happen" or "no it won't". Sometimes people want that certainty, even if it's not what they want to hear. 

 

I did a yes/no spread last year about a potential windfall in the pipeline, the spread was a resounding yes but I'd have to wait, and said windfall came a few days ago 🤣

 

My partner is a Samaritan and would often ask me "will I enjoy my shift" and one spread that stands out in my memory was a "no, there'll be a foreign male whose accent will be so thick you won't be able to understand him". He came back and said word for word it was true. He didn't feel like he could help him because of that and it cast a shadow on the shift. 

[Misterei]

2 minutes ago, akiva said:

... All of the examples you gave could easily be read as if spread from a yes/no question. In my experience it's not that different from reading on exploratory questions. You come to the same conclusion but with just an added "yes it will happen" or "no it won't". Sometimes people want that certainty, even if it's not what they want to hear. ...

Very true. This is why I say the yes/no often arises organically from a larger spread. In the end, clients usually DO want a clear yes/no ... but I seldom START there. I let it evolve from a complete picture of the person's situation.

Except for myself or a close friend. We often have enough context b/c we know ourselves or we know each other. So we can cut to the chase and go directly to yes/no.

[gregory]

50 minutes ago, Misterei said:

I NEVER start with a binary question for a client.

 

Nor would I.

 

50 minutes ago, Misterei said:

In spreads about miscarriage it's often in the past [thank god] and the client is worried about the current pregnancy b/c of past events which she may or may not mention. If it appears in the future I don't predict miscarriage b/c that veers into unethical. Instead I tell the client there is a risk and she must work with her doctor or get a second doctor [again, this depends on other cards in a 10-card spread]. In the example I gave, thank god the miscarriage had been in the past but it still affected the woman.

 

Yes - I don't do health readings and pregnancy comes under that.

 

42 minutes ago, akiva said:

It was more to highlight how the example given could  easily be interpreted as a yes/no 😆

 

I'd struggle to see Empress and Death together in a pregnancy reading as a yes 😅

 

So would I - but then again., I don't see Empress as specifically pregnancy related. And I did once get 10 swords as a happy marriage. My sitter totally got it. 

[akiva]

10 minutes ago, Misterei said:

Very true. This is why I say the yes/no often arises organically from a larger spread. In the end, clients usually DO want a clear yes/no ... but I seldom START there. I let it evolve from a complete picture of the person's situation.

This is definitely a reading style thing. You start broad and then narrow the aperture down as things become revealed (I think? 😆).

If I had more clients who weren't close to me I'd definitely do the same! Else you're starting blind, and you can't always ask for context. 

 

5 minutes ago, gregory said:

So would I - but then again., I don't see Empress as specifically pregnancy related. And I did once get 10 swords as a happy marriage. My sitter totally got it. 

I don't tend to read Empress as pregnancy either, more growth and life. I remember you saying about the 10S. That's definitely a head scratcher 😅 

[Misterei]

2 minutes ago, gregory said:

... I don't see Empress as specifically pregnancy related. And I did once get 10 swords as a happy marriage. My sitter totally got it. 

Vis a vis Empress, I only read it as pregnancy in certain contexts ... but felt it was the best card to illustrate how the same card might lead to vastly different interpretations.

 

And yes, there are those weird, random 1-offs. 10-swords as good for marriage? Go figure. Just to keep us on our toes?

[Misterei]

2 minutes ago, akiva said:

This is definitely a reading style thing. You start broad and then narrow the aperture down as things become revealed (I think? 😆).

Exactly so. Good way to put it. I start wide angle or even pano, then narrow the aperture for close-ups [not a photographer but you get the point 😇]

[gregory]

For those as care - 10 Swords in that reading demonstrated the FINAL ABSOLUTE end to her previous abusive relationship, shutting it behind her for ever - and a solid new start. In the spread it showed as positive in terms of the marriage. She pointed  out the detail of it to me in context.

 

And yes - that lens analogy is brilliant.

[Misterei]

1 hour ago, gregory said:

For those as care - 10 Swords in that reading demonstrated the FINAL ABSOLUTE end to her previous abusive relationship, shutting it behind her for ever - and a solid new start. In the spread it showed as positive in terms of the marriage. She pointed  out the detail of it to me in context.

I thought along those lines. Vis a vis the new relationship healing a past betrayal. This illustrates the point that even a malefic card may read as benefcial in certain contexts. In a yes/no i would read 10 swrods as NO. Yet in the context of a more detailed and nuanced spread ... it's a NO to a painful past and a YES to a favorable future.

[Deian]

12 hours ago, Misterei said:

IRL humans have valid yes/no questions which really do have closer to a 50-50 probability. And we can do multiple spreads to cover any adjustments to probability.

 

 

Someone I knew had the habit before student exams to go in meditation and see the question that will be chosen. He studied only on that question, 1 from 200+ possible questions with chance to come up, or somewhere around there. That question would come and he would take it.

From his point of view, as far as I noticed back then, there was nothing random on it. The chance to get that question was 100%. No need to study anything else.

This is just an example, though, we have done similar stuff with systems we use although with lower chances and much less confidence in the results before we saw.

 

All was decided by what the person has chosen and needed. In my humble view, the probability is for the Diviner, the situation doesn't carry randomness, at least as far as I have seen. If we need that path in life we will take the exam. Studied or not. If we are suppose to be on that job, we will get it offered, bad or good interview. etc.

Outside of the systems we try to fit to the events I'm not sure there is any real "randomness". So nothing carry 50/50 by itself, that is to align the system to what we know. If we know enough the answer should be clear without any systems.As its always unavoidable. In the way the person talks about it, in their posture and a lot of other things around them, we can see if the job is for them and that will point to how the outcome will be.

 

Just my view, of course... However, that explains the dino example. As its not impossible, if that has to happen the statistical chance doesn't really matter much. Same as it doesn't really matter in any other event we divine for, as all will be unavoidable, based on needs and choices of the person and people in the event.

As the wise people say:

 

Quote

“Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one.
But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.” Terry Pratchett

 

[Misterei]

“Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one.
But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.” Terry Pratchett

 

@Deian this brings up an interesting question. Can humans use their subtle senses to access non-local information and thus tweak odds?

We might debate this for lifetimes [and probably have!]

So, yes, I agree that we humans can use our subtle senses to tweak odds ... but not to the point that 1/1,000,000 becomes 9/10.

Else i would have won the lottery by now.

 

But going back to my 50-50 odds that a certain medicine will work on me. We started at 70-30 [stats from their advertising] and reduced to 50-50 b/c of my history of bad side effects.

 

With prayer, meditation, visualization ... perhaps I can get the odds back uo to 70-30. Or even 80-20 in my favor. The divinations from multiple card readings suggest this. That my odds are in favor. None of this puts too great a strain on "objective reality"

 

So I've used my subtle senses to increase odds from 50-50 to 75-25 in my favor. I think the humans who can increase 50-50 odds up to 100% are far more evolved than I. Do such humans exist? Probably. But not in my friend group 😇

Edited May 13, 2024 by Misterei

[Deian]

3 hours ago, Misterei said:

“Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one.
But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.” Terry Pratchett

 

@Deian this brings up an interesting question. Can humans use their subtle senses to access non-local information and thus tweak odds?

We might debate this for lifetimes [and probably have!]

So, yes, I agree that we humans can use our subtle senses to tweak odds ... but not to the point that 1/1,000,000 becomes 9/10.

Else i would have won the lottery by now.

 

But going back to my 50-50 odds that a certain medicine will work on me. We started at 70-30 [stats from their advertising] and reduced to 50-50 b/c of my history of bad side effects.

 

With prayer, meditation, visualization ... perhaps I can get the odds back uo to 70-30. Or even 80-20 in my favor. The divinations from multiple card readings suggest this. That my odds are in favor. None of this puts too great a strain on "objective reality"

 

So I've used my subtle senses to increase odds from 50-50 to 75-25 in my favor. I think the humans who can increase 50-50 odds up to 100% are far more evolved than I. Do such humans exist? Probably. But not in my friend group 😇

 

That seems smart use of divination... Although if we want to understand how it all works, taking away the side effects may actually be a minus, sometimes... As usual, up to what is the reason for it all.

 

[gregory]

Do we in fact overthink all this ? Do we in any way NEED to know "how it works" ?

[Misterei]

1 hour ago, gregory said:

Do we in fact overthink all this ? Do we in any way NEED to know "how it works" ?

For me, calculating odds is a practical aid to my readings.

As I've mentioned, statistically improbable cards get my attention.

A normal 10-card spread will average 2-3 Majors. When i see a 10-card spread with 8 Trumps ... this tells me Something is Happening.

I know other readers might  just say: Wow! Lotta majors. You got some heavy sh^t happening 😠

I like math. I like probability. This is part of how cards speak to me.

I don't say others need to take this approach ... many fine readers don't. But I love this stuff. And i use it in my reads.

[Deian]

10 hours ago, gregory said:

Do we in fact overthink all this ? Do we in any way NEED to know "how it works" ?

That is the only thing that matters, in my humble experience.

 

If we understand a specific situation, we don't need divination. The outcome is always clear by itself. If we don't understand it, rarely divination can provide the whole missing framework we need to look from, to get what is happening.

 

So understanding is the only thing needed, and divination can realign here and there, but can't replace it. Making the most important part asking the right question. Reading the answers is easy when we understand, and pointless when we don't.

Just my view, of course.

[dancing_moon]

Personally, I don't really see probabilities as linear in this case. The way I read one-card yes/no questions (yes, I'm heretic that way), each card is interpreted within the context of the question, which means the same card could mean either "yes" or "no", depending on what exactly you ask. E.g. for the question "Will I sign this contract by the end of May?", 2 of Cups means "yes", but if the question is "Will I stay single till the end of May?", 2 of Cups is a resounding "no". So once you ask a specific question, the probabilities, even if one sees them purely mechanically, are instantly recalculated. And I don't think they necessarily need to be 50/50 each time: some things, even among those that we can reasonably expect to happen, are, of course, more likely than others. 

 

But that's not the point.

 

The point is, the way I see it, probabilities are relevant and valid only for a random number generator. When I pull a card, I surely don't do it randomly. My whole previous experience, the way my body and mind work, how I shuffle, how I focus, etc. etc. - those are all the contributing factors to which card(s) I'll pull in the end. And, of course, there's the spiritual part of this, whatever you might call it, the interconnection and intertwining of all things that makes reading the cards possible and worth it - the interconnection so tight that nothing truly "random" can probably happen in it at all. Again, this is just my own take on this - your mileage may vary.

[Misterei]

6 hours ago, dancing_moon said:

Personally, I don't really see probabilities as linear in this case. The way I read one-card yes/no questions (yes, I'm heretic that way), each card is interpreted within the context of the question, which means the same card could mean either "yes" or "no", depending on what exactly you ask. E.g. for the question "Will I sign this contract by the end of May?", 2 of Cups means "yes", but if the question is "Will I stay single till the end of May?", 2 of Cups is a resounding "no".

You bring up an interesting point. For me the problem is when a single card draw is ambiguous. "Will I sign the contract?" and you pull Strength. I mean I guess that's a yes? But it's not all nice and clear like 2 Cups, or 2 Wands. "Will I stay single?" Strength. also yes [at least how I read strength as subduing animal passions]. Or "will i stay single?" and you pull Justice. or Fool. or 6 Cups. Anyway, when I've tried to read Tarot on yes/no by this fashion ... 50% of the time I end up scratching my head muttering, wtf?

6 hours ago, dancing_moon said:

... probabilities are relevant and valid only for a random number generator. When I pull a card, I surely don't do it randomly. My whole previous experience, the way my body and mind work, how I shuffle, how I focus, etc. etc. - those are all the contributing factors to which card(s) I'll pull in the end. And, of course, there's the spiritual part of this, ... the interconnection and intertwining of all things ...

I agree 100%. This is why I don't use tarot apps. I don't want random. I want the ghost in the machine.

That being said, I don't see these approaches as mutually exclusive. I like math. I note probabilities. I fully believe that my subtle senses are working WITH mathematics to give me the answers I seek.

 

We moderns have lost this. Pythagoras taught a mystical approach to mathematics which has been sadly whitewashed out of our educational system.

[gregory]

11 hours ago, dancing_moon said:

Personally, I don't really see probabilities as linear in this case. The way I read one-card yes/no questions (yes, I'm heretic that way), each card is interpreted within the context of the question, which means the same card could mean either "yes" or "no", depending on what exactly you ask. E.g. for the question "Will I sign this contract by the end of May?", 2 of Cups means "yes", but if the question is "Will I stay single till the end of May?", 2 of Cups is a resounding "no". So once you ask a specific question, the probabilities, even if one sees them purely mechanically, are instantly recalculated. And I don't think they necessarily need to be 50/50 each time: some things, even among those that we can reasonably expect to happen, are, of course, more likely than others. 

 

But that's not the point.

 

The point is, the way I see it, probabilities are relevant and valid only for a random number generator. When I pull a card, I surely don't do it randomly. My whole previous experience, the way my body and mind work, how I shuffle, how I focus, etc. etc. - those are all the contributing factors to which card(s) I'll pull in the end. And, of course, there's the spiritual part of this, whatever you might call it, the interconnection and intertwining of all things that makes reading the cards possible and worth it - the interconnection so tight that nothing truly "random" can probably happen in it at all. Again, this is just my own take on this - your mileage may vary.

 

YES !

 

5 hours ago, Misterei said:

You bring up an interesting point. For me the problem is when a single card draw is ambiguous. "Will I sign the contract?" and you pull Strength. I mean I guess that's a yes? But it's not all nice and clear like 2 Cups, or 2 Wands. "Will I stay single?" Strength. also yes [at least how I read strength as subduing animal passions]. Or "will i stay single?" and you pull Justice. or Fool. or 6 Cups. Anyway, when I've tried to read Tarot on yes/no by this fashion ... 50% of the time I end up scratching my head muttering, wtf?

I agree 100%. This is why I don't use tarot apps. I don't want random. I want the ghost in the machine.

That being said, I don't see these approaches as mutually exclusive. I like math. I note probabilities. I fully believe that my subtle senses are working WITH mathematics to give me the answers I seek.

 

We moderns have lost this. Pythagoras taught a mystical approach to mathematics which has been sadly whitewashed out of our educational system.

 

This too. The ghost in the machine is the THING !